Oil crept higher alongside global equities, bouncing off a one-month low as the White House signaled optimism about a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could bring back Moscow’s barrels into an already saturated market.

West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.2% to settle above US$58 a barrel, recouping most of the previous day’s losses. Volumes are still trending lower ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s envoy, will lead a delegation for talks in Russia next week on ending the nearly four-year long war, a Kremlin official said. Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said negotiations in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.” Yet any peace deal still faces the same obstacles as in the past: what satisfies Ukraine is likely a deal-breaker for Russia, and vice versa.

Much of Russia’s oil and fuel is subject to heavy western sanctions, with US restrictions on the two biggest producers kicking in last week. However, China, India and Turkey have been eager buyers of the discounted crude, so the impact on global prices from any lifting of curbs is hard to gauge.

In the US, meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that overall crude inventories climbed by 2.8m barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories also expanded. That did little to assuage growing oversupply fears.

Oil has retreated by more than a fifth since the middle of June as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored barrels, while producers outside of the group also pumped more. Worldwide crude supply is expected to exceed demand by a record 4m barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency forecast this month.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc said a peace deal may shave off about US$5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of US$56 next year. “That would put Brent in 2026 in the low US$50s,” analyst Daan Struyven told Bloomberg TV.

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